Random Election Night Ramblings

November 7th, 2006 · 14 Comments · Main, National, State

6:30 a.m. House control for Dems now a foregone conclusion. Only the margin is in doubt. Dem Senate control hinges on the outcome in Montana and Viriginia. Dems are ahead slightly in both races. Virginia could wind up in court. The Commonwealth is crawling with lawyers already. A disaster for the GOP. Bush is scheduled to speak this afternoon. How can he possibly spin this?

Almost midnight. I am retiring for the evening. I’ve got an election story to write first thing in the morning. Waiting for Senate races in Montana and Missouri. It could be hours … adios until 6 a.m.

11:25 p.m. Hastert is all but conceding right now. He is resigned to looking for “a few pick-ups” out west. And NY GOP Rep. John Sweeney, who has represented Millerton and Pine Plains since Gerry Solomon retired in 2000, is gone, losing to Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand. Dick Gephardt is on MSNBC. He said, “This is like 1994 in reverse.” An apt simile … hard to disagree with at this point, although the Senate remains in doubt.

11:10 p.m. ABC is projecting the Dems will take the House. If they take the Senate, it will be interesting to see whether the same Dems who were calling for a Dem Congress for a check-and-balance on the executive branch, will call for a Republican president in 2008 because, well, we need a check and balance, right? Be careful what you wish for and how you wish for it.

Saw Massachusetts Dem Rep. Ed Markey on NECN earlier with Jim Braude. Markey, who had called for the checks and balances in Washington, was asked if he felt the same now that the Bay State will have a Dem governor (Deval Patrick) and has had a Dem legislature as long as anyone can remember. All Ed could do was spin furiously and avoid the question. I love hypocrisy. It’s so much fun to expose.

10:40 p.m. Harry Reid told Keith Olberman, “I’m so proud of the American people for listening to us and recognizing we need change.” Gag me … Almost makes me regret my vote for Murphy.

10:30 p.m. Nancy conceded at 9:55 p.m., the Courant reports. I am stunned by the 56-43% margin. The last poll I saw a couple of weeks ago showed Murphy ahead by only 4 points. But the old rule-of-thumb is that if you are an incumbent and aren’t pulling 50% in the last few weeks, you are toast. GWB in 2004 was the notable exception. Nancy wasn’t so lucky.

10:10 p.m. Fox News is projecting Murphy wins. Projections call for the GOP to lose 20-30 seats. Nancy did everything she could to withstand this anti-Bush, anti-GOP wave, but even her 24 years of experience were no match for the youthful Murphy and his demand for “change.”

9:45 p.m. Howard Fineman says the Dems will now have to decide what their position is on Iraq. Most are against it now. But what is the plan? With power comes responsibility. I agree. A pullout now? A timeline? A deadline? What is the plan?

9:35 p.m. Former Republican House Majority leader Dick Armey is on MSNBC and says, “It’s a pretty grim night .. a lot of chickens are coming home to roost.” Now NBC is projecting Link Chaffee will lose in Rhode Island. No one is saying it yet, but the Dems could take the Senate. They’ve picked up 3, so they are halfway there. Let’s see what happens in Missouri and Montana. But Tennessee looks tough for Dem Harold Ford Jr.

9:15 p.m. CT-N reports CBS is projecting a win for Joe. It must not even be close at this point.

9:05 p.m. CT-N has Chris Murphy beating Nancy Johnson by 62-38%, but there’s only one catch. Only 1% of precincts reporting. But way ahead in Nancy’s hometown of New Britain. Colin McEnroe says “it’s an early good sign for Murphy.” Now they say relatively conservative North Canaan has gone for Murphy.

8:40 p.m. Menendez is projected to win in NJ by a few points over Tom Kean Jr. I met Kean’s father, Tom Sr. (former governor of NJ), as we went to the same high school (more than 20 years apart, however). He is a great guy and his son was in the same mold. But Jersey has become so blue that even a moderate Republican like the elder Kean or Christy Whitman would have trouble getting elected statewide there, especially given the current climate.

8:30 p.m. Now NBC is projecting Bob Casey wins in PA. He’s currently leading Santorum by 16 points. PA is more conservative than, say, neighboring New York, but Santorum is just too hard right even by the Quakers State’s standards. Feminists will no doubt be nervous at Casey’s pro-life positions, but it was really a Hobson’s choice for them.

8:25 p.m. CNN is reporting Bill Nelson, Olympia Snow and (yes) Teddy Kennedy will keep their seats. Boy, they really went out on a limb there. Nelson was running against Katharine Harris, the villain of the 2000 presidential election who ran one of the worst campaigns in electoral history. I’m sure there have been far better candidates for dog catcher in Torrington.

And when is the last time Teddy has faced a serious challenge? Romney in 1994? Speaking of Mitt, very knowledgeable sources tell me the GOP nomination in 2008 will boil down to him and McCain.

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14 responses so far ↓

1 Marshall Miles // Nov 7, 2006 at 10:07 pm

I thought the House would be easier than the Senate for the Dems to take over…ooppsss!!!!

Looks like a clean sweep at this point…Nancy P will start the Impeachment process tomorrow!

MM
2 Yankee // Nov 7, 2006 at 10:52 pm

Terry,

What is your reax to Shays holding up stronger than Johnson?
3 Terry // Nov 7, 2006 at 11:12 pm

I am somewhat surprised, although Fairfield County has always been redder than most of the rest of the state.

Notwithstanding Shays’s troubling tendency to self destruct in the last few weeks, he comes across as more thoughtful than Johnson and I think Murphy was a stronger challenger than Diane Farrell.

But hey, what do I know? You grew you there. What do you think?
4 Steve Barlow // Nov 7, 2006 at 11:40 pm

Terry:

Actually, if I recall correctly, Litchfield County (with strong blue-collar support in Torrington, Thomaston, Watertown) went for Bush in 2004 while Kerry carried Fairfield County. I think Nancy Johnson’s campaign was so nasty that she turned off lots of people who were suspicious of Murphy but didn’t want to reward her abrasiveness. This is one instance in which negative ads failed miserably.
By the way, I’m waiting to read Marshall’s concession speech or is he holed up somewhere refusing to admit his defeat?
5 Terry // Nov 8, 2006 at 6:32 am

Steve,

Good point. I guess I have become so inured to the negative ads that it never crossed my mind that people might vote against Johnson in large numbers for her ads. It seems people take nastiness for granted.

It could have been a big factor. Let’s see what the post-mortems look like.
6 Yankee // Nov 8, 2006 at 7:00 am

Terry,

Now that it seems clear that Simmons and Shays have withstood the Democratic landslide in CT, I remain even more interested in understanding why Johnson went down. Did the misbegotten war in Iraq play a greater role? I sense it played stronger in both the rural communities of the Northwest Corner and in the industrial cities like New Britain.

Having left Fairfield County in 1972, I have zero insight into the dynamics of the Shays/Farrell race. Sorry.
7 Doug Richardson // Nov 8, 2006 at 7:10 am

Nancy Johnson’s defeat was part of the collateral damage in the national wave of repudiation against the current administration’s policies. I genuinely believe that NW Connecticut shot itself in the foot in voting her out; it will be years–if ever–before Chris Murphy will bring back any federal funds to this area and when money for things like rebuilding Canaan’s railroad station disappears, will we remember that we got what we asked for?
8 Fred Baumgarten // Nov 8, 2006 at 11:19 am

So…the purpose of electing representatives is solely to make sure they bring home the bacon?!

Actually, as an environmentalist, I feel a little sorry for Johnson, who often kept some of the worst Republican anti-environmental legislation at bay. She was a good “liberal Republican” who had one flaw — she should have been a Democrat!

Let’s see what Murphy does. I don’t really know bubkus about him. However, in general, I hold out little hope that the Democrats will change anything, despite their use of “change” as an empty slogan. As I’ve said here before, they are beholden to the same interests of the wealthy aristocracy as are the Republicans.

–Fred–
9 terry mccarthy // Nov 8, 2006 at 7:08 pm

I was trying to keep a running diary of the election night news myself, but stuff was happening way too fast. It was like I was a mutt with his head stuck out the window of a speeding Toyota. Enjoying the view, but wishing everything wasn’t so damn blurry. Then I woke up this morning and started doing it again. By 1 p.m. Bush was taking questions from an Eyes Wide Shut press corps that had been up all night, and there was W, bright eyed and Bushy tailed, having just awakened from a 10 hour sleep. And there he was again, at 3:30 p.m., showing Rummy the door. Too much, too much. But I have to give Bush credit; he was the best stage manager ( of the news ) since Connecticut’s own Paul Newman played the role in Our Town.
10 Paul Bartomioli // Nov 9, 2006 at 5:03 pm

Fred: that is what they tell us. Personally, I am opposed to the bacon to rebuild Canaan Union Station. But then, I could not see why my tax dollars pay for West Byrdginia, Bridge to Nowhere, ad nauseum.

The problem is math. Try this: $1 million for Canaan Union Station = lots of money to anyone except a politician, the most common person in DC. However, divide that $1 million by about 280 million people, approximately the population at the time of the Pork, and its mere pennies!! Do you complain about a few cents? As someone once said, a million here, a million there, and soon you’re talking real money.

My bet for a solution: TERM LIMITS. 3 in the House, 2 in the Senate, then become a lobbyist in DC. IF anyone thinks Nancy is moving back to ANYWHERE in CT, you are in Nirvana. Now that she is out of office, she is no big deal to the great unwashed. We all have lives, jobs, bills, etc. “Hey, great job Nancy, talk to you soon. Going to soccer, etc with the kids.”

They all miss the adulation. Ole Independent Democrubican Trough Feeding Joe knows that. Al Gore ruined him, showed him what life is like at the head of the trough. Joe couldn’t make it there, so, better to not lose the seat he has. Now the other guy, Dodd, is trying to move up. Well, at least we always have 1 senator in DC to look out for the pork.
11 Tom Cowgill // Nov 9, 2006 at 10:39 pm

After the thumpin’, it looks like Bush called his daddy.
12 Janet Manko // Nov 9, 2006 at 10:55 pm

I agree with Tom - it sure looks as if Bush decided to get some earthly advice instead of the “higher power” wisdom he sought so often in the first six years of his presidency.
13 Terry // Nov 10, 2006 at 6:26 am

He did reach back to 41. I hope to have an election post mortem up by the end of the day. –TC
14 Doug Richardson // Nov 10, 2006 at 7:09 pm

Uh, Fred? Please show me where I used the word “solely?”

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