Patrick L. Sullivan

I am pleased to report that as of Friday morning I had not read or viewed one single scrap of information on the Super Duper.

The two-week layoff between the conference finals and the Super Duper is a disgrace. Where is the point of diminishing returns on pre-game hype? I’d say about two and a half days, or the first story about an assistant coach’s crippled daughter - whichever comes first.

Some hype is necessary, even good. But more hype isn’t gooder.

It’s just hyper.

According to Tim Sullivan of the New York Post, “Teams that average more than 27 points in the regular season are 22-2-1 in the Super Bowl. The Giants average 23.2 points. The Patriots 35.6.”

Got that?

Big Tim also points out the Pats have not covered in eons, and if you subtract 23.2 from 35.6 you get 12.4. By an odd coincidence, the opening line today is 12 points.

But I keep remembering the intensity of the Giants in that final regular season matchup, when they had nothing on the line and nobody (well, almost nobody) would have blamed them if they sat their regulars.

So the play for me is New York plus the 12 points. Final score, New England 34-28.

I’m looking forward to this. Maroney zig-zagging and breaking tackles for New England; the Patriot linebackers trying to tip Young Master Manning’s throws. New York trying to blast it up the middle and not getting anywhere until about midway through the third quarter, when all of a sudden the holes appear; a death-defying Manning-to-Burress heave that gives the Giants momentum heading into the half.

And that inevitable, evil moment so familiar to the fans of teams that played New England this year - when Brady gets the ball with about three minutes left, two timeouts plus the two-minute warning. You just know they’re going to score.

I have three films in the exceptionally weird “Coffin Joe” series to review, but the pro football playoffs must come first.

After hitting three of four against the spread in the first round I promptly evened it up by going 1-3 in the second round, getting only the Giants/Cowboys tilt right.

Today the Patriots - “Team of Destiny” - are giving an even two touchdowns to the San Diegos. New England hasn’t covered much this season, mainly because of the inflated spreads oddsmakers wrote to discourage bandwagoneers.

And 14 is a lot in a conference final. But for once I think the Patriots will handle this - I just can’t see the banged-up Chargers doing much this afternoon, and one of those New England linebackers is going to tip an ill-advised pass and bammo - off to the races.

So New England minus 14 is the pick.

At Green Bay the Packers are favored by seven. Young Master Manning has an excellent Packer secondary to contend with. On defense the Giants are facing a real Quick-Draw McGraw in Brett Favre, and their decimated secondary will be in trouble if they play man-to-man coverage. In a zone they might make Favre hang on to the ball just a little longer, and increase the chances of a rushed or errant throw. It will be cold. The Giants can run, we’ve seen that the last two weeks.

I like New York plus the even touchdown.

We hit three of four last week, with only the Redskins gagging.

This week the focus is on the differences between the conferences, which is why I like both NFC underdogs and both AFC favorites against their respective spreads.

That would be Seattle plus eight at Green Bay  Saturday; New York plus seven and a half at Dallas Sunday; New England minus 13 and a half vs. Jacksonville Saturday; Indianapolis minus nine vs. San Diego Sunday.

Conventional wisdom says Packers QB Brett Favre will get picked for points at least once, kooky gunslinger that he is. I’m thinking the Seahawks moved the ball pretty well last week and will stay inside the line anyway.

Conventional wisdom says the Cowboys’ T.O. always comes up with a convenient injury at crunch time; could this be because Mr. O is an  obvious neurotic who fronts by being an obnoxious loudmouth? Dallas is vulnerable to the Giant’ boring old running game, and Mr. Eli Manning has had two decent games in a row.

Conventional wisdom says that the Colts will be so mad at the Chargers that it won’t even be close. I think it’s because the Chargers are so inconsistent that this won’t be close.

And finally, conventional wisdom says Dr. Evil, who has super-secret powers of clairvoyance, magically knew he would be playing the Jaguars and not the Chargers or Steelers. The fact that the Pats already played the Chargers and Steelers and thus had dossiers on hand, allowing the Doc to focus on Jax, apparently never entered conventional wisdom’s pretty little head.

So:

Sea + 8 at GB

NE - 13.5 vs. Jax

Indy -9 vs. SD

NY + 7.5 at Dal

I am sick so I don’t have the mental capacity to figure out what the season record was. It was below .500 for the second straight year, I know that much.

Lemme hear ya say “D’oh!”

(Speaking of “D’oh!”, I finally saw the Simpsons movie and was struck by the sheer brilliance of one little throwaway bit - Homer holding the pig upside down to get its footprints on the ceiling, while singing “Spider Pig, Spider Pig/ Does whatever a Spider Pig does…”)

Okay.

If you were really going to put money on the pro football playoff games the best way to do it would be the money line, since all but one of these spreads are so miniscule that the picks almost amount to straight up bets anyway.

But I’m sitting here with a head full of yick thinking about Spider Pigs and the notion of explaining the money line for the 11 people who read this stupid blog just doesn’t hold much appeal.

So…

Saturday:

Redskins plus 3.5 at Seahawks: Washington hits playoffs with the hot hand.

LATE CORRECTION - Saturday, 4:10 p.m. — Line shifted to Jaguars minus 2.5 at Steelers: I think the loss of Willie Parker makes Pittsburgh’s offense one-dimensional, plus Jax has hot hand (see above). But Pittsburgh in their own building plus points? I’ll take it.

Sunday:

Giants plus 3 at Buccaneers: This depends entirely on New York pounding the ball and keeping Tampa’s Jeff Garcia off the field. It would also be nice if young Master Manning could avoid lobbing the ball to the opposition.

Chargers minus 9.5 vs. Titans: San Diego coach Norv Turner has a remarkable gift for the FUBAR, but it’s hard to imagine Tomlinson not accounting for at least seven of the nine and change.

Last week was dreadful.

That’s all I have to say at this moment.

Tonight the Patriots will cover 14 points as they make mincemeat of the Giants. Never mind Brady and Moss - it’s the New England secondary that will shut down the New York passing game.

Only Eli Manning won’t figure that out until they’ve scored twice on interceptions.

Sunday morning…

I was dead wrong about the score and mostly wrong about Manning and the New England secondary - until Hobbs picked off the lad in the fourth quarter, which led to the Death Blow.

That was the best pro game I’ve seen in a while. And how about that unprecedented act of generosity on the part of the NFL, allowing those of us without the NFL Network to see the game?

(Call your cable company…call your cable company… )

Right. Here are the scenarios for games that mean something:

Car -3 at TB: Bucs began resting players last week vs. San Francisco.

NO -2 at Chi: Saints blew it last week but have a teensy-weensy chance of sliding into the playoffs, so they must win.

SF +10 at Cle: Browns are in with a Tennessee loss. Win or lose here doesn’t matter, and Niners have been stubborn lately.

Was -9 vs. Dal: Figure Cowboys resting people and win-and-in for Redskins and this is an easy pick.

Min +3 at Den: Vikes have very slim hope for playoffs.

SD - 8.5 at Oak: With win Chargers avoid Patriots until final round of playoffs, assuming they get that far.

Pit - 3.5 at Bal: Steelers could get that #3 spot if the Chargers lose.

Ind +6 vs. Ten: Win-and-in for Titans, Indy’s all set…but I still have a problem passing up the Colts as home underdogs.

The rest:

GB +4 vs. Det: Nothing on the line, but again, hard to pass up a good team at home plus points.

KC +6.5 at NYJ: Loser gets a better draft pick, and needs it.

Phi -8 vs. Buf

Mia + 2.5 vs. Cin

Jax - 6.5 at Hou: Jags are in at #5, but I’m thinking they’ll play this like a tuneup, not a gimme…

Atl -1 vs. Sea: …as opposed to this one, where the Seahawks are going to relax.

AZ -6 vs. StL: From the “somebody has to win this” file; Cards would finish with .500 record.